A map showing tectonic plate boundaries (gray) as well as the East African Rift zone (dotted lines). (Image credit: U.S. Geological survey)
The East African Rift most likely formed because of heat flowing up from the asthenosphere — the hotter, weaker, upper part of Earth’s mantle — between Kenya and Ethiopia, according to the Geological Society of London. This heat caused the overlying crust to expand and rise, leading to stretching and fracturing of the brittle continental rock. This led to substantial volcanic activity, including the formation of Mount Kilimanjaro, the highest mountain in Africa, NASA’s Earth Observatory noted.
If Africa does rip apart, there are different ideas for how that might happen. One scenario has most of the Somalian plate separating from the rest of the African continent, with a sea forming between them. This new landmass would include Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and the eastern parts of Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, Ebinger said. “Another scenario has only eastern Tanzania and Mozambique separating,” Ebinger noted.
If the African continent does rupture, “the rift in Ethiopia and Kenya may split to create a Somali plate in the next 1 million to 5 million years,” Ebinger said.
However, Africa may not split in two. The geological forces driving the rifting might prove too slow to separate the Somalian and Nubian plates, Ebinger said. One notable example of a failed rift elsewhere on the globe is the Midcontinent Rift, which curves for about 1,900 miles (3,000 km) across the Upper Midwest of North America, according to a 2022 review in the journal GSA Today.
“Failed rifts mark continental landmasses worldwide,” Ebinger said.
The eastern branch of the East African Rift is a failed rift, according to the Geological Society of London. However, the western branch is still active.
“What we do not know is if this rifting will continue on its present pace to eventually open up an ocean basin, like the Red Sea, and then later to something much larger, like a small version of the Atlantic Ocean,” Macdonald said. “Or might it speed up and get there more quickly? Or it might stall out?”
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