There was intense fighting around the army headquarters on Tuesday, with focus moving from the airport after a night of sporadic gunfire and explosions.

Smoke billows above residential buildings in Khartoum. Source: AFP/Getty Images

The conflict has torn up plans to return to civilian rule as Sudan’s army led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan battles the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group, under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti.

It threatens nearby states like South Sudan which exports oil through its northern neighbor, and the interests of Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

War would disrupt Russian mercenary group Wagner’s gold operations, plans by UAE companies to construct ports and China’s investments in Sudan, including more than $6 billion in loans. Refugees could flee across borders.

“It’s a country whose crisis will not be contained within,” said Murithi Mutiga, program director for Africa at International Crisis Group. “You need a cease-fire quickly or you are staring at civil war.”