After a brief lull in violence following Rwandan military intervention in 2021, attacks by ISIS-linked militants have intensified. Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo visited Kigali in late August, securing a renewed security agreement with President Paul Kagame. The deal, announced 29 August, could pave the way for a permanent Rwandan military base in the region.

Rwandan forces had previously led successful counterinsurgency operations alongside Southern African Development Community (SADC) troops, reclaiming key towns like Mocimboa da Praia. But since SADC forces withdrew in July 2024 due to funding shortfalls, the insurgents have regrouped, shifting to mobile, unpredictable attacks.

According to the latest report by the United Nations and the U.S.-sponsored Famine Early Warning System Network (FewsNet), over 56,000 civilians have been displaced since July, many of them children. Violence has expanded south into Ancuabe and Chiúre, blocking humanitarian access and threatening neighboring provinces. Rwanda is now rotating in a new military contingent, led by Maj Gen Vincent Gatama, to reinforce operations.

While Rwandan troops have provided a critical security buffer, humanitarian agencies like MSF warn of escalating health and displacement crises without sustained international support. With energy giant TotalEnergies preparing to resume its $20 billion gas project, Mozambique’s reliance on Kigali is now both strategic and increasingly long-term.