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KENYA RISES AS KEY EXPORTER TO RWANDA AS TANZANIA’S ROLE CONTRACTS

Kenya is emerging as a growing source of imports for Rwanda, supplying US$ 34.01 million (6.92% of total imports) in September 2025, up 9.18% year-on-year, while Tanzania’s exports to Rwanda fell to US$ 52.91 million (10.18% of total imports), down 42.88% from September 2024. By Brian Nzomo

Economics

By MANZI

On Tuesday 11 November 2025

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Data from Rwanda’s National Institute of Statistics (NISR) shows that Kenya ranked as the fourth-largest import partner for Rwanda in September 2025, behind only China, India, and Tanzania.

The decline signals a shift in regional trade dynamics, with Rwanda increasingly turning to Kenya to meet demand for food products and manufactured goods.

Kenya’s positive growth in Kigali’s imports highlights the increasing importance of intra-East African trade, particularly under the framework of the East African Community’s preferential trade agreements.

China and India still dominate Rwanda’s import market, supplying US$113.65 million and US$56.49 million, respectively.

The September data marks a recovery from Q2 figures which revealed that Kenya’s exports to Kigali had plunged sharply to US$78.2 million from US$245.1 million a year earlier.

While Kenya’s imports to Rwanda have grown steadily, the country remains a minor destination for Rwandan exports. Combined domestic and re-export shipments to Kenya fall below the top ten export destinations, with total Rwandan exports to the country included in the “Rest of the World” category valued at US$29.50 million for September 2025.

Rwanda’s export performance weakened sharply in September 2025, with total shipments dropping nearly 50% from August and 23% year-on-year to US$121.94 million. Shipments of food and live animals, however, surged 58% to US$54 million.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remained Kigali’s largest buyer, taking US$33 million worth of goods, while the United Arab Emirates’ share of domestic exports slid sharply to 9.6% from 66.7% a year earlier.

Following the October elections and the ensuing political crisis in Tanzania, disruptions at the port of Dar es Salaam and along inland transport routes are expected to weigh further on Rwanda’s imports from the country in October and November.

The slowdown may temporarily erode Tanzania’s trade share in Rwanda’s market, opening room for Kenya and other regional suppliers to gain more ground.

Rwanda’s total trade deficit widened in September 2025 to US$305.57 million, up 23.36% from August 2025 and 11.43% from September 2024, underscoring the country’s continuing reliance on imports to meet domestic demand. Land transport remains the dominant mode for regional trade, with the majority of imports from Kenya and Tanzania moving over road networks.